Risk assessment of Sino-Russian interstate projects based on indicator system of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

Purpose. The purpose of this study is to comprehensively and objectively evaluate the risks of Sino-Russian interstate projects, and further promote the accumulation of project management experience and the improvement of management techniques.

Methods. The author adopts the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method to conduct further data analysis based on the risk assessment indicator system. The author uses the expert questionnaire survey method. Based on the survey results, a fuzzy judgment matrix is constructed, and weights are assigned to the indicators. With these weight data, the comprehensive importance ranking of the risk assessment indicators for Sino-Russian interstate projects can be obtained.

Results. The author obtained the following results through data analysis. In the risk assessment of the Sino-Russian interstate project: In terms of behavioral risk, attention should be paid to the ability of subcontractors to fulfill their contracts on schedule during the construction phase, and efforts should be made to explore international standards applicable to both China and Russia. In terms of management risk, importance should be attached to the cultivation of international project management talents, and it is necessary to explore the training mode of project management talents for SinoRussian projects; and the concept of the sustainable development of the project should be emphasized. In terms of process risk, attention should be paid to the screening of project categories and schemes. In terms of external risk, it is necessary to optimize project policies and industrial policies and accelerate the progress of project approval.

Conclusions. The results of the model analysis provide in detail the specific ranking of the key risk factors of Sino-Russian interstate projects, offering an academic increment for the risk research in this field. In subsequent studies, empirical analysis can be further carried out for specific projects. The research findings put forward corresponding improvement suggestions for the risk management of Sino-Russian interstate projects.

1. Davatgar B.H., Paltrinieri N. & Bubbico R. Safety barrier management: risk-based approach for the oil and gas sector. Journal of marine science and engineering. 2021; 9(7): 722-743.

2. Lee J. K., Han S. H., Jang W., & Jung W. “Win-win strategy” for sustainable relationship between general contractors and subcontractors in international construction projects. KSCE journal of civil engineering. 2017. 22(2):428-439.

3. Li X.K., Wang X.M., & Lei L. The application of an ANP-Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to assess lean construction management performance. Engineering, construction and architectural management. 2019. 27( 2):356-384.

4. Wang Xiaohan. Establishment of indicator system for risk assessment of Sino-Russian interstate projects based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. State and Municipal Management. Scholar Notes. 2024;(4):34–42. https://doi.org/10.22394/2079-1690-2024-1-4-34-42. EDN ABZMIU

5. Min Y. & Sen Z. Fuzzy consistent matrix and its application in soft science. System engineering. 1997. 38(2).

6. Ping Z. & Guoqing F. Application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate the effect of water flooding development. Journal of Petroleum exploration and production technology. 2018.(8):1455-1463.

7. Jijun Z. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). Fuzzy systems and mathematics. 2000.14(2):80-88.

8. Wanli W. Research on credit risk rating and prevention mechanism of small and micro enterprises in banks based on fuzzy analytic Hierarchy process. Dissertation of South China university of technology. 2019.

9. Yuejin L. Sorting of fuzzy analytic Hierarchy Process based on fuzzy consistent matrix. Fuzzy systems and mathematics. 2002.(2):79-85.

10. SPSSAU website. http://spssau.com/indexs.html