Vertical fiscal imbalance as a tool for analyzing the debt sustainability of Russian regions

The applicability of the indicator of vertical fiscal imbalance and its components in  the analysis of debt sustainability of Russian regions is considered. The concept of vertical imbalance of  the International Monetary Fund is modified to include different types of intergovernmental transfers  in the budgetary system of Russia. The data on regional credit ratings from Analytical Credit Rating Agency "ACRA" are used as a criterion for grouping regions, a regression analysis of the credit rating is carried out. It is found that vertical imbalance can be considered one of the promising tools in the analysis of regional debt sustainability. The inverse relationship between vertical imbalance and debt sustainability with  the latter estimated through the value of the credit rating, is found. Deficit and federal intergovernmental transfers in 2020 increased vertical imbalance and reduced debt sustainability of the subjects of  the Russian Federation. Vertical imbalance in regions with greater debt sustainability increased mainly due to the growth of deficit, while in less sustainable regions – due to intraregional centralization of federal  earmarked intergovernmental transfers.

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